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Assessing and Governing Long-term Risks
Long-term risks can be thought of as risks where the probability and/or magnitude of harm increases on a multi-decadal timescale. Long-term risks can arise from purely social causes (e.g., those associated with political or economic institutions, violence, and technology), but often arise from the interaction of humans with the Earth system (e.g., climate change; ozone depletion; resource depletion; pandemics; flood and seismic risk in areas subject to increasing development). In the past, many such risks – such as pandemics and earthquakes in the pre-scientific world – arose without the potential for foresight and were blamed on supernatural causes. Today, there are many that are within human knowledge. Nonetheless, long-term risk governance remains challenging for multiple reasons, including that uncertainty in projected hazards often increase the further we project into the future. Co-Taught by Professor Robert Kopp.
- Shwom, Rachael